403 Helen St

Maricopa, CA 93252

$149,999D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,461/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $148/mo
• Annual: $1,773/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.6% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,049 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,477 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 157 students, 98% FRL); Maricopa Middle (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 77 students, 96% FRL); Maricopa High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,064 of 1,170 statewide, top 97%, 84 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 55% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.