403 Helen St · Maricopa, CA 93252

$149,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1969 4,791 sqft lot $250/sqft · 30% above area Est $115k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity or perfect starter home at an affordoble price point.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 89 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,049 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Maricopa Unified (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,302 of 1,400 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maricopa Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,477 of 1,571 statewide, top 94%, 157 students, 98% FRL); Maricopa Middle (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 77 students, 96% FRL); Maricopa High (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,064 of 1,170 statewide, top 97%, 84 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 55% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,254
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: 30.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
292 Adeline St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (+1)	659 (+10%)	21mo	$160,000	$243	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,978
• Equity at exit: $26,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,994
• Equity at exit: $20,239

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93252

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $190	+0% $148	+5% $105	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $90	+0% $148	+5% $205	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $186	base $148	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,999 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,999 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,999 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,999 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,999 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,999 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,999 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,999 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $149,999 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Great investment opportunity or perfect starter home at an affordoble price point.

18. 2025-08-07
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2023-07-31
    soldstatus $60,000
20. 2012-07-25
    price $29,900
21. 2012-07-19
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 2012-07-11
    historical
23. 2012-06-15
    listed $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$163
• After-tax cash flow: $1,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623820
• Math proficiency: 10% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,246
• Composite: 15.98/100
• National rank: #14303
• State rank: #1302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1049
• US rank: #25155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,429

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 3% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.38%
• Current HPI: 141.0367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $149,999 GEMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $145,000 GEMLS
• 2023-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-25 Price Changed $29,900 GEMLS
• 2012-07-19 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GEMLS
• 2012-07-11 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2012-06-15 Listed $30,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.