2988 Lakeshore Dr

Lake George, NY 12845

$3,995,000F

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,668 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax + insurance: −$5,228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-23,550/mo
• Annual: $-282,594/yr
• Cap rate: -0.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.26%
• DSCR: -0.12
• 1% rule: 0.08%
• Cash to close: $1,118,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $4.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24k ($-283k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (90.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (91.7% below list).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $333k (91.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $427k of equity ($28k loan paydown + $400k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$687k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 2.9% in Lake George — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?