2988 Lakeshore Dr · Lake George, NY 12845

$3,995,000

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 210 Days on market

Built 2004 1.35 ac lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent value at this lakefront 5,668 SF, 6 BR, 4.5 bath residence built in 2004 and lightly lived in. The main level features a vaulted great room, lake-facing kitchen/dining wing, and private primary suite with walk-in closets and luxury bath. Upstairs offers 5 BR's (2 w/ lakeviews) and 2 baths. Walk-out lower level has open layout w/ kitchen and bath - ideal for entertaining. Quality finishes throughout. Waterfront includes 3-season gazebo w/ kitchenette & bath, plus rebuilt U-shaped dock w/ 3 slips and potential for boathouse rebuild (subject to approvals). Situated on 1.35 acres in RCH-LS zone allowing short-term rentals, mins from I-87 and the Village. A rare opportunity to se

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Walk-in closets
• 3-season gazebo

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• 3-SEASON GAZEBO
• REBUILT U-SHAPED DOCK
• 1.35 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Space for up to 8 vehicles total; Paved driveway and off-street parking
• Security: 24-hour security; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank and septic (shared septic); Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Lakefront property on Lake George; Cleared, landscaped lot with views and road frontage; Approximately 1.35-acre lot
• Construction: Clapboard, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior materials; Asphalt/composition roof; Finished, heated full basement with exterior and interior entry and walk-out access
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Front porch; Patio; Outdoor lighting; Gazebo; Second residence on property; Additional garage structure(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Multiple additional bedrooms located on the second floor
• Flooring: Tile; Hardwood; Marble
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full baths located on the first floor, second floor and basement
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Forced air; Natural gas; Radiant floor heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Solid surface counters; Steam shower; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Built-in features; Crown molding; Two fireplaces (family room and other); 19 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $4.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24k ($-283k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (90.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (91.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (91.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.8% vs local median 2.8% in Lake George — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $427k of equity ($28k loan paydown + $400k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$687k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $332,752 (91.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 92% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.08% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.26%
• DSCR: -0.12
• GRM: 100.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $675,072
• Equity at exit: $3,599,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $3,165,825
• Equity at exit: $7,761,406

Cash invested: $1,118,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 100.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax from tax record: −$3,563 /mo · $42,762/yr
• Insurance: −$1,665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $-23,550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $33,137

Max offer price $380,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-21,288	-5% $-22,419	+0% $-23,550	+5% $-24,680	+10% $-25,811
Rent	-10% $-23,812	-5% $-23,681	+0% $-23,550	+5% $-23,418	+10% $-23,287
Rate	-1.0pp $-21,538	-0.5pp $-22,533	base $-23,550	+0.5pp $-24,585	+1.0pp $-25,638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $998,750
• Closing costs: $119,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 210 DOM
2. 2025-11-18
   status Active
3. 2025-11-18
   price $3,995,000
4. 2025-08-23
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-22
   historical
6. 2025-08-06
   listed $3,500,000 Active
7. 2024-12-31
   historical
8. 2024-06-06
   price $9,999,000
9. 2023-10-31
   listed $12,000,000 Active
10. 2023-07-11
    historical
11. 2022-11-21
    listed $7,000,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $42,762 · $3,563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $55,139 · $4,595/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,377/yr (+$1,031/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$223,782
• − Property taxes: −$42,762
• − Insurance: −$19,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,194
• − Management: −$3,194
• − Depreciation: −$116,218
• Taxable loss: −$369,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-193,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $3,995,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-23 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $3,500,000 Global MLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $9,999,000 Global MLS
• 2023-10-31 Listed $12,000,000 Global MLS
• 2023-07-11 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-11-21 Listed $7,000,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $42,762 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.