19071 W Allan

Lockwood, CA 95689

$269,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1975 · Other · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,806/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#455 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?