19071 W Allan · Lockwood, CA 95689

$269,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Other public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1975 0.73 ac lot $161/sqft · 36% below area Est $421k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mountain retreat or full time home nested in the tall pines in Volcano Ca. Large level lot with 2 Level mountain home with open floor plan and 2 car garage. Bathroom count differs from the county, buyer to verify

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Mountain retreat
• Large level lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• LARGE LEVEL LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#455 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,544 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,488
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -35.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,324
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-58,793
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95689

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,336/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $243,319

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-74	+0% $-150	+5% $-227	+10% $-303
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-233	+0% $-150	+5% $-68	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-82	base $-150	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-01-20
    price $269,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Mountain retreat or full time home nested in the tall pines in Volcano Ca. Large level lot with 2 Level mountain home with open floor plan and 2 car garage. Bathroom count differs from the county, buyer to verify

16. 2026-01-13
    listed $262,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Mountain retreat or full time home nested in the tall pines in Volcano Ca. Large level lot with 2 Level mountain home with open floor plan and 2 car garage. Bathroom count differs from the county, buyer to verify

17. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $376,000
18. 2000-07-13
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,336
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$6,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $-237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lockwood

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #15482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockwood, CA
• City population: 1,065
• Population (ZIP): 1,065

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Iranian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.91%
• Current HPI: 144.8647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+115.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $269,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $262,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $376,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,336 · -18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.