70820 Isabelle Rd

Happy Valley, AK 99556

$164,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,447/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $634/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $45,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($634/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#167 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — existing but dated
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated and small
• Minor: exterior landscaping — overgrown yard