70820 Isabelle Rd · Happy Valley, AK 99556

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2011 Fair condition 1.13 ac lot $107/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story 3BR/2BA home under construction, already framed, wired, and plumbed--ready for the next owner to finish. Interior upstairs awaits drywall and finishing touches. Rustic cabin and separate bathhouse on site offer flexibility while completing the home. A great setup for fishing adventures, a summer basecamp, or a hands-on starter home.

Key facts

• Separate bathhouse
• Two story
• Rustic cabin

Tags

• TWO STORY
• RUSTIC CABIN
• SEPARATE BATHHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($634/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#167 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $144,706 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,678
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -58.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $18,535
• Equity at exit: $68,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $67,110
• Equity at exit: $102,495

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $180,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This two-story 3BR/2BA home under construction, already framed, wired, and plumbed--ready for the next owner to finish. Interior upstairs awaits drywall and finishing touches. Rustic cabin and separate bathhouse on site offer flexibility while completing the home. A great setup for fishing adventures, a summer basecamp, or a hands-on starter home.

18. 2025-10-04
    price $168,000
19. 2025-06-30
    price $175,000
20. 2024-12-13
    listed $180,000 Active
21. 2024-06-27
    price $180,000
22. 2024-05-18
    price $199,000
23. 2023-09-09
    price $214,900
24. 2023-07-12
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,948 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$2,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$512
• After-tax cash flow: $1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-story home is under construction and ready for the next owner to finish. It requires moderate repairs and maintenance to bring it up to a fair condition. Updates to the interior walls, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom fixtures would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — existing but dated
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated and small
• Minor exterior landscaping — overgrown yard

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · existing but dated	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and small	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior landscaping · overgrown yard	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #24095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $180,000 AKMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $168,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $175,000 AKMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $180,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $180,000 AKMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $199,000 AKMLS
• 2023-09-09 Price Changed $214,900 AKMLS
• 2023-07-12 Listed $225,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.