4209 Stockton Rd

Stockton, MD 21851

$75,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Pending · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $354/mo
• Annual: $4,244/yr
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.21%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#463 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snow Hill Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #260 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 379 students, 55% FRL); Snow Hill Middle (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #114 of 225 statewide, top 52%, 403 students, 59% FRL); Snow Hill High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 348 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.