4209 Stockton Rd · Stockton, MD 21851

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1969 1.06 ac lot $106/sqft · 15% above area Est $65k · 15% over ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large 1 acre parcel would make a great site for your dream home. Situated on the corner of Klej Grange and Stockton Roads, this lot offers great privacy with limited neighbors. There is an old mobile home on the property that you could renovate, replace or remove and build a new home. The property already has a well and septic in place and is under 6 miles to downtown Pocomoke City, 11 miles to Snow Hill, MD, 24 miles to Chincoteague Island, VA and 35 miles to Ocean City, MD.

Key facts

• 1 acre parcel
• 1.06 acre lot
• Built 1969

Tags

• 1 ACRE PARCEL
• WELL AND SEPTIC IN PLACE
• 11 MILES TO SNOW HILL MD
• 35 MILES TO OCEAN CITY MD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#463 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snow Hill Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #260 of 860 statewide, top 33%, 379 students, 55% FRL); Snow Hill Middle (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #114 of 225 statewide, top 52%, 403 students, 59% FRL); Snow Hill High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 348 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.21%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 15.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4209 Stockton Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	708 (0%)	1mo	$65,000	$92	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $10,356
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $37,964
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21851

• Home prices YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $375	+0% $354	+5% $332	+10% $311
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $312	+0% $354	+5% $395	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $373	base $354	+0.5pp $334	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $75,000 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This large 1 acre parcel would make a great site for your dream home. Situated on the corner of Klej Grange and Stockton Roads, this lot offers great privacy with limited neighbors. There is an old mobile home on the property that you could renovate, replace or remove and build a new home. The property already has a well and septic in place and is under 6 miles to downtown Pocomoke City, 11 miles to Snow Hill, MD, 24 miles to Chincoteague Island, VA and 35 miles to Ocean City, MD.

2. 2026-03-08
   price $88,000 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This large 1 acre parcel would make a great site for your dream home. Situated on the corner of Klej Grange and Stockton Roads, this lot offers great privacy with limited neighbors. There is an old mobile home on the property that you could renovate, replace or remove and build a new home. The property already has a well and septic in place and is under 6 miles to downtown Pocomoke City, 11 miles to Snow Hill, MD, 24 miles to Chincoteague Island, VA and 35 miles to Ocean City, MD.

3. 2026-01-14
   price $94,000 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This large 1 acre parcel would make a great site for your dream home. Situated on the corner of Klej Grange and Stockton Roads, this lot offers great privacy with limited neighbors. There is an old mobile home on the property that you could renovate, replace or remove and build a new home. The property already has a well and septic in place and is under 6 miles to downtown Pocomoke City, 11 miles to Snow Hill, MD, 24 miles to Chincoteague Island, VA and 35 miles to Ocean City, MD.

4. 2025-12-15
   listed $110,000 Active 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   This large 1 acre parcel would make a great site for your dream home. Situated on the corner of Klej Grange and Stockton Roads, this lot offers great privacy with limited neighbors. There is an old mobile home on the property that you could renovate, replace or remove and build a new home. The property already has a well and septic in place and is under 6 miles to downtown Pocomoke City, 11 miles to Snow Hill, MD, 24 miles to Chincoteague Island, VA and 35 miles to Ocean City, MD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$12/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$769
• After-tax cash flow: $3,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $56,748
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5672
• State rank: #6 of 24 in MD

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #26190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,252

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,363 people
• By 2030: 51,191 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 50,459 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 49,451 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 48,533 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 44,223 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 37% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Mexico
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 38.0% · R 60.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.03%
• Current HPI: 243.2329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $88,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $94,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.