17 Milagro Ct

Tome, NM 87031

$245,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · Built 1993 · Other · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,742/yr
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.54%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (13.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $212k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#89 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Merced Elementary (437 students, 100% FRL); Belen Middle (528 students, 100% FRL); Belen High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #61 of 110 statewide, top 61%, 1,027 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Los Lunas Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $245k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.