403 Oak St

Higgins, TX 79046

$39,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $466/mo
• Annual: $5,587/yr
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.51%
• DSCR: 3.25
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($935 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#857 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lipscomb County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.