403 Oak St · Higgins, TX 79046

$39,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1950
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($935 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#857 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lipscomb County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.51%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $34,424
• Equity at exit: $17,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $81,016
• Equity at exit: $27,372

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79046

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $346

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,500 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,500 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    price $39,500
16. 2026-02-05
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $723 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$898
• − Management: −$898
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $5,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $4,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canadian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,018
• Composite: 40.23/100
• National rank: #3776
• State rank: #229 of 826 in TX

Livability — Higgins

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #857
• US rank: #15401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Higgins, TX
• Population (ZIP): 545

Population outlook (Lipscomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,045 people
• By 2030: 4,275 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 4,723 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 5,121 · +26.6%
• By 2075: 5,959 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 6,040 · +49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 10% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scottish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Lipscomb

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.6) · D 9.8% · R 89.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -74.7pp · 2024: -79.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.6 2020: R+79.4 2016: R+77.5 2012: R+79.2 2008: R+74.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $39,500 AARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $45,000 AARMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.