46 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Hwy

Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$3,995,000D-

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 0 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax + insurance: −$6,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,266
• Net cashflow: $-7,799/mo
• Annual: $-93,584/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $1,118,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $4.00M. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-94k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.87M (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.51M (37.2% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.51M (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $28k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $4.00M implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $25,076/mo this rent would consume 232% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of potential leaks and wear.
• Major: exterior siding — Visible cracks and discoloration.
• Major: flooring — Old and in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Wear and discoloration indicating lack of recent maintenance.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of recent maintenance or updates.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.