46 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Hwy

Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$3,995,000D-

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 0 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $24,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax + insurance: −$6,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,197
• Net cashflow: $-8,059/mo
• Annual: $-96,709/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $1,118,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $4.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-97k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.83M (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.47M (38.1% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.47M (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $28k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $4.00M implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $24,746/mo this rent would consume 229% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.