46 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Hwy · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$3,995,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 0 sqft · Land public records · 178 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 0.35 ac lot Est $4.679M · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Barn with Harbor Views Set on a perfectly scaled .36-acre parcel, this newly constructed modern barn offers 4,333 +/- SF of thoughtfully curated living space, leading the charge with a new Hamptons design. A refined, contemporary palate where sensibility meets a meaningful refinement. Soaring 12' ceilings throughout create an airy elegance, while walls of glass invite in natural light and frame tranquil harbor views. The main level is designed for effortless entertaining; a seamless open layout connects the chef's kitchen, dining area, and living room. Clean architectural lines lead into the outdoor living spaces, where a heated pool and spa are surrounded by lush, manicured grounds. The home features five well-appointed bedrooms and five-and-a-half baths, including a serene primary suite with water views, a private terrace, and a spa-like bath. A second-floor terrace offers sweeping vistas, while the lower level is tailored for relaxation and recreation, complete with a bunk room, private gym, sauna, and a temperature-controlled wine room. A 2-car garage with extended height and depth offers flexibility for a golf simulator or additional lifestyle use. Ideally positioned just minutes from East Hampton Village and directly across from Gardiners Marina, with easy access to Three Mile Harbor, this location offers the best of waterfront living, close to beaches, boating, and the Hamptons' most coveted dining destinations. Outdoors, multiple lounging and entertaining areas create a true resort-like setting, equally suited for summer gatherings or quiet coastal evenings.

Key facts

• Bunk room
• Serene primary suite
• Private gym

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• PRIVATE GYM
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• BUNK ROOM
• SERENE PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $4.00M. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-102k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.76M (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.42M (39.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.42M (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 7.4% in Northwest Harbor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $24,178/mo this rent would consume 223% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $28k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $4.00M implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,417,798 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.13%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,679,430
• List price: $3,995,000
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 N Main St	0.25mi	6/5.5 (+1)	4,939	12mo	$4,200,000	$850	61
42 Hedge Row Ln	0.43mi	5/5.5	6,000	10mo	$7,510,000	$1,252	60
1 Palma Ter	0.71mi	4/5.5 (-1)	3,200	0mo	$3,650,000	$1,141	49
8 Lauras Ln	0.62mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,059	8mo	$2,682,000	$1,303	41
13 Egypt Ln	0.76mi	4/5.5 (-1)	—	9mo	$4,750,000	—	40
4 Issacs Path	1.18mi	4/6.0 (-1)	3,525	9mo	$3,200,000	$908	38
16 Amys Ln	0.90mi	4/5.5 (-1)	3,288	12mo	$7,700,000	$2,342	38
170 Cedar St	0.98mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500	0mo	$3,450,000	$1,380	37
116 Hands Creek Rd	0.90mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,294	3mo	$2,375,000	$721	37
12 Pleasant Ln	0.94mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,100	7mo	$3,450,000	$1,643	36
151 Newtown Ln	0.99mi	5/7.5	5,600	11mo	$3,550,000	$634	36
14 Covey Ct	0.94mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,182	12mo	$1,525,000	$479	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-1,061,097
• Equity at exit: $595,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-1,038,697
• Equity at exit: $345,415

Cash invested: $1,118,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,994 /mo · $59,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,077
• Net cashflow: $-8,508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $34,948

Max offer price $2,763,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,747	-5% $-7,128	+0% $-8,508	+5% $-9,888	+10% $-11,269
Rent	-10% $-10,418	-5% $-9,463	+0% $-8,508	+5% $-7,553	+10% $-6,598
Rate	-1.0pp $-6,496	-0.5pp $-7,492	base $-8,508	+0.5pp $-9,543	+1.0pp $-10,596

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $998,750
• Closing costs: $119,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Miller Ln E East Hampton, NY	5.0	5.5	3850	$40,000	$10.39	120d	1	0.19mi
7 Miller Ln W East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2600	$90,000	$34.62	139d	1	0.30mi
121 Pantigo Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	3400	$40,000	$11.76	120d	1	0.65mi
8 Palma Ter East Hampton, NY	6.0	5.5	6600	$85,000	$12.88	120d	1	0.66mi
7 Spring Close Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2200	$25,000	$11.36	59d	1	1.06mi
24 Stratton Sq East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.0	2200	$15,000	$6.82	114d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-13
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-09-12
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-09-11
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-09-05
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-09-04
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-09-02
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-08-31
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-08-29
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-08-28
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-08-27
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-08-25
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-08-24
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-08-23
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-08-22
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-08-21
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-08-20
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-08-19
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-08-18
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-08-17
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-08-16
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-08-15
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-08-14
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-08-13
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-08-12
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-08-11
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-08-10
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-08-09
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-08-08
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-08-06
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-08-05
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-08-04
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-08-03
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-07-31
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-07-30
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-07-30
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-07-28
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-07-26
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-07-24
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-07-23
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-07-22
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 125 DOM
41. 2026-07-21
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 124 DOM
42. 2026-07-20
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 123 DOM
43. 2026-07-18
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-07-18
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-07-16
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-07-15
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-07-14
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-07-13
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 116 DOM
49. 2026-07-13
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-07-11
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $290,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$223,782
• − Property taxes: −$59,925
• − Insurance: −$19,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,211
• − Management: −$23,211
• − Depreciation: −$116,218
• Taxable loss: −$176,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-59,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior siding and painting, HVAC system upgrade, landscaping, and flooring replacement. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of potential leaks and wear.
• Major exterior siding — Visible cracks and discoloration.
• Major flooring — Old and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Wear and discoloration indicating lack of recent maintenance.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible signs of recent maintenance or updates.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Fixes the most critical issue and improves both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior siding and painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior paint, improving both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's exterior and attracts more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves the home's interior and attracts more buyers and renters by providing a more modern and functional living space. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 68/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John M Marshall Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle East Hampton Middle School C NY #280/729 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High East Hampton High School A+ NY #71/1,100 Nat'l #103/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $3,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $1,040,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2016): $277 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.