46 Three Mile Harbor Hog Creek Hwy · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$3,995,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 0 sqft · Land public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 0.35 ac lot Est $4539k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Barn with Harbor Views Set on a perfectly scaled .36-acre parcel, this newly constructed modern barn offers 4,333 +/- SF of thoughtfully curated living space, leading the charge with a new Hamptons design. A refined, contemporary palate where sensibility meets a meaningful refinement. Soaring 12' ceilings throughout create an airy elegance, while walls of glass invite in natural light and frame tranquil harbor views. The main level is designed for effortless entertaining; a seamless open layout connects the chef's kitchen, dining area, and living room. Clean architectural lines lead into the outdoor living spaces, where a heated pool and spa are surrounded by lush, manicured grounds. The home features five well-appointed bedrooms and five-and-a-half baths, including a serene primary suite with water views, a private terrace, and a spa-like bath. A second-floor terrace offers sweeping vistas, while the lower level is tailored for relaxation and recreation, complete with a bunk room, private gym, sauna, and a temperature-controlled wine room. A 2-car garage with extended height and depth offers flexibility for a golf simulator or additional lifestyle use. Ideally positioned just minutes from East Hampton Village and directly across from Gardiners Marina, with easy access to Three Mile Harbor, this location offers the best of waterfront living, close to beaches, boating, and the Hamptons' most coveted dining destinations. Outdoors, multiple lounging and entertaining areas create a true resort-like setting, equally suited for summer gatherings or quiet coastal evenings.

Key facts

• Bunk room
• Serene primary suite
• Private gym

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• PRIVATE GYM
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• BUNK ROOM
• SERENE PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $4.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-97k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.83M (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.47M (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.47M (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $24,746/mo this rent would consume 229% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $28k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $4.00M implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,474,615 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,538,966
• List price: $3,995,000
• Delta: -11.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-1,029,498
• Equity at exit: $595,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-960,669
• Equity at exit: $345,415

Cash invested: $1,118,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,994 /mo · $59,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,197
• Net cashflow: $-8,059

Break-even live

Break-even rent $34,948

Max offer price $2,828,837

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $998,750
• Closing costs: $119,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Miller Ln E East Hampton, NY	5.0	5.5	3850	$40,000	$10.39	24d	1	0.19mi
7 Miller Ln W East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2600	$90,000	$34.62	44d	1	0.30mi
121 Pantigo Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	3400	$40,000	$11.76	24d	1	0.65mi
8 Palma Ter East Hampton, NY	6.0	5.5	6600	$85,000	$12.88	24d	1	0.66mi
7 Spring Close Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.5	2200	$25,000	$11.36	1d	1	1.06mi
24 Stratton Sq East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.0	2200	$15,000	$6.82	19d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,995,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,995,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $3,995,000 Active 1599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1599 chars)

    Modern Barn with Harbor Views Set on a perfectly scaled .36-acre parcel, this newly constructed modern barn offers 4,333 +/- SF of thoughtfully curated living space, leading the charge with a new Hamptons design. A refined, contemporary palate where sensibility meets a meaningful refinement. Soaring 12' ceilings throughout create an airy elegance, while walls of glass invite in natural light and frame tranquil harbor views. The main level is designed for effortless entertaining; a seamless open layout connects the chef's kitchen, dining area, and living room. Clean architectural lines lead into the outdoor living spaces, where a heated pool and spa are surrounded by lush, manicured grounds. The home features five well-appointed bedrooms and five-and-a-half baths, including a serene primary suite with water views, a private terrace, and a spa-like bath. A second-floor terrace offers sweeping vistas, while the lower level is tailored for relaxation and recreation, complete with a bunk room, private gym, sauna, and a temperature-controlled wine room. A 2-car garage with extended height and depth offers flexibility for a golf simulator or additional lifestyle use. Ideally positioned just minutes from East Hampton Village and directly across from Gardiners Marina, with easy access to Three Mile Harbor, this location offers the best of waterfront living, close to beaches, boating, and the Hamptons' most coveted dining destinations. Outdoors, multiple lounging and entertaining areas create a true resort-like setting, equally suited for summer gatherings or quiet coastal evenings.

16. 2016-03-17
    soldstatus $1,400,000
17. 2013-03-12
    soldstatus $1,040,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $296,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$223,782
• − Property taxes: −$59,925
• − Insurance: −$19,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,756
• − Management: −$23,756
• − Depreciation: −$116,218
• Taxable loss: −$170,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40,910
• After-tax cash flow: $-55,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $3,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $1,040,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2016): $277 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.