516 Pawling Ave

Troy, NY 12180

$280,000B+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,175 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$934
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
• Net cashflow: $849/mo
• Annual: $10,185/yr
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.99%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $424/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#88 in NY, #1,350 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Troy City School District (urban): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #467 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $280k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.3% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,115/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2698% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.