215 Cottonwood Dr

Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$489,999D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,246 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$817
• HOA: −$166
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$924
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-915/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-915/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $479k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $440k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $440k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $490k implies a 6900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Fawn Lake Forest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.