215 Cottonwood Dr · Fawn Lake Forest, PA 18428

$489,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,246 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 0.79 ac lot $166/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Summer Special! Builder is offering buyer concession in the amount of $10,000 at settlement to be applied towards closing costs, prepaid extras, and/or lender approved fees. Fawn Lake Forest Under Construction and ready for buyer to customize. House is ready to go, buyers can walk thru, all framed and ready to get final decisions on finishes. Beautiful four-bedroom, three full-bath home is quality new construction by one of the area's premier builders. The luxurious design features an oversized garage, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and a striking fieldstone fireplace. Interior highlights include hardwood flooring, tiled bathrooms, and a spacious primary suite with Japanese soaking t

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Open floor plan
• Japanese soaking tub

Tags

• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIELDSTONE FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILED BATHROOMS
• JAPANESE SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Fawn Lake subdivision
• HOA & community: Part of homeowners association (annual fee applies); Annual association fee and one-time fee required; Association fee covers security and snow removal; Community amenities include pool (indoor and outdoor), clubhouse, fitness center, tennis and basketball courts, playground, park, dog park, beach access and rights, fishing, boat access for powered boats, game room, and barbecue areas

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors; Community security included in association services
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; New construction
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Level lot; Access to Fawn Lake; Paved private road with private maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric range/oven; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Forced air heating; Baseboard heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Walk-in closets; Pantry; Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace with stone surround (propane)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-915/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $479k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $440k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $440k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Fawn Lake Forest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,395 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $490k implies a 6900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $440,000 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $262,177
• Equity at exit: $441,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $776,223
• Equity at exit: $951,960

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,350/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$166
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$924
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,497

Max offer price $478,962

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Cottonwood Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	3.0	2908	$4,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $166 · $1,992/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,999 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,999 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,999 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $489,999 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$7,350
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,224
• − Management: −$4,224
• − HOA: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$9,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $1,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fawn Lake Forest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1395
• US rank: #17626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fawn Lake Forest, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+6900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $489,999 PWMLS
• 2005-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $264 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.