227 Log Cabin Rd

Ashby, MA 01431

$239,900B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 929 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $662/mo
• Annual: $7,947/yr
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Middlesex (rural): math 36% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #150 of 302 in MA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $240k implies a 1448% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.