227 Log Cabin Rd · Ashby, MA 01431

$239,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1962 0.56 ac lot $258/sqft · 27% below area Est $328k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of a private dead-end road in Ashby, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home with a home office offers a peaceful retreat with a serene, secluded setting. Ideal as a summer escape or comfortable year-round residence, the property features deeded access to Lower Wrights Pond and enjoys tranquil water views from select vantage points. The home is thoughtfully laid out to maximize functionality while maintaining a cozy, inviting feel. Three sheds/outbuildings provide excellent storage and flexibility for hobbies, equipment, or outdoor gear. Surrounded by natural beauty, this setting offers a sense of privacy while remaining accessible to area amenities and recreation. Whether you are seeking a quiet getaway or single level living in your primary home, this property delivers a unique opportunity to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle in a scenic Ashby location. Check out the 3D Tour! 3 parcels to convey. Buyer responsible for Title V / Septic.

Key facts

• Three sheds
• Tranquil water views
• 0.56 acre lot

Tags

• TRANQUIL WATER VIEWS
• THREE SHEDS
• PRIVATE DEAD-END ROAD
• SCENIC ASHBY LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Middlesex (rural): math 36% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #150 of 302 in MA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $240k implies a 1448% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.83%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,622
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -26.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,294
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $57,141
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01431

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,589/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $798	-5% $730	+0% $662	+5% $594	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $439	-5% $550	+0% $662	+5% $774	+10% $886
Rate	-1.0pp $783	-0.5pp $723	base $662	+0.5pp $600	+1.0pp $537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $239,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $250,000 New 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of a private dead-end road in Ashby, this charming 1 bedroom, 1 bath home with a home office offers a peaceful retreat with a serene, secluded setting. Ideal as a summer escape or comfortable year-round residence, the property features deeded access to Lower Wrights Pond and enjoys tranquil water views from select vantage points. The home is thoughtfully laid out to maximize functionality while maintaining a cozy, inviting feel. Three sheds/outbuildings provide excellent storage and flexibility for hobbies, equipment, or outdoor gear. Surrounded by natural beauty, this setting offers a sense of privacy while remaining accessible to area amenities and recreation. Whether you are seeking a quiet getaway or single level living in your primary home, this property delivers a unique opportunity to enjoy a relaxed lifestyle in a scenic Ashby location. Check out the 3D Tour! 3 parcels to convey. Buyer responsible for Title V / Septic.

17. 1981-12-21
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,589 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,589
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,717
• − Management: −$2,717
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $4,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $6,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Middlesex
• NCES district ID: 2508790
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $82,624
• Composite: 41.69/100
• National rank: #3413
• State rank: #150 of 302 in MA

Livability — Ashby

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,188

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 276.7752
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+1512.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $250,000 MLS PIN
• 1981-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,589 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.