3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,416 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,383/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$117
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$425/mo
Annual
$5,097/yr
Cap rate
11.15%
Cash-on-cash
17.34%
DSCR
1.77
1% rule
1.32%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Olive J Dodge Elementary School (math 6% / reading 35%, grade F, #453 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 875 students, 67% FRL); Denton Magnet School of Technology (math 26% / reading 69%, grade C-, #32 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 314 students, 94% FRL); Wp Davidson High School (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 305 statewide, top 12%, 1,535 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.1% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and discolored, needs repainting.
Major: Landscaping
— Overgrown yard with debris, needs trimming and planting.
Minor: Interior walls/paint
— Paint appears faded in some areas, needs touch-up paint.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CPM5065B6FJA83
· Data 2 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29