3130 Grand Concourse Unit 2J

New York, NY 10458

$325,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$791
• Net cashflow: $728/mo
• Annual: $8,741/yr
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 62 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,765/mo this rent would consume 111% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 10274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.