3130 Grand Concourse Unit 2J · New York, NY 10458

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Condo · 116 Days on market

Built 1968 ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

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Key facts

• Private corner unit
• Updated electric
• Customize kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER UNIT
• CONSIDERABLE SIZED PANTRY
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• CUSTOMIZE KITCHEN
• CUSTOMIZE BATHROOMS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Pride Property Management

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No designated parking
• Utilities: Electric service by Con Edison; Public sewer; Public trash collection; Water available
• Home design: Stock cooperative; 7 stories total; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Second floor location
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Elevator; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; Basement laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $728 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 62 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,765/mo this rent would consume 111% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 10274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.61%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.03% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $141,710
• Equity at exit: $184,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $435,981
• Equity at exit: $319,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10458

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$791
• Net cashflow: $728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-02-22
    listed $325,000 Active
13. 2026-02-15
    historical
14. 2025-11-15
    listed $385,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,614
• − Management: −$3,614
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $3,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $7,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 74,898
• Household income: $40,800
• Rent vs Own: 95.8% rent · 4.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10274.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Black 16% Two or more races 10% White 8% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 34%
• Foreign-born: 41% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Current HPI: 173.4217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid