527 Willow St

Lilly, PA 15938

$120,000C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $114/mo
• Annual: $1,372/yr
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,087 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Penn Cambria SD (town): math 29% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #304 of 539 in PA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.