527 Willow St · Lilly, PA 15938

$120,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 6,969 sqft lot Est $142k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this move in ready and comfortable home in Lilly borough! This property offers a great deal of versatility as far as layout the possibilities are numerous! This 2 to 3 bedroom and 2 bath home features car port and mudroom plus plenty of cabinet space and a large pantry. This place of residence is adorned with a nice back deck and above ground pool perfect for entertaining! Call today to see this lovely home!

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Bonus room
• Large yard

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACE
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE YARD
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• OFF-STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,087 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Penn Cambria SD (town): math 29% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #304 of 539 in PA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,911 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Jones St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+0%)	9mo	$126,000	$85	68
541 North St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,642 (+11%)	9mo	$155,000	$94	64
637 White St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	16mo	$150,000	$104	56
136 William St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-11%)	13mo	$165,000	$125	50
5250 Portage St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (-9%)	13mo	$130,000	$96	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,236
• Equity at exit: $29,544

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $18,536
• Equity at exit: $31,518

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15938

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $991/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $148	+0% $114	+5% $80	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $71	+0% $114	+5% $158	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $145	base $114	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 45.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$991
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Cambria SD
• NCES district ID: 4213770
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,952
• Composite: 36.48/100
• National rank: #4657
• State rank: #304 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lilly

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1087
• US rank: #12305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lilly, PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,307

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.90%
• Current HPI: 101.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+293.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $120,000 AHARMLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) $85,000 AHARMLS
• 2020-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-30 Listed $87,500 AHARMLS
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $991 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.