84 Crystal Dr

Aquebogue, NY 11931

$759,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,980
• Tax + insurance: −$1,227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $17,703/mo
• Annual: $212,435/yr
• Cap rate: 34.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.96%
• DSCR: 5.45
• 1% rule: 3.82%
• Cash to close: $212,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $759k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($212k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $759k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($736k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $736k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $76k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $213k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$130k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.