84 Crystal Dr · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$759,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1996 0.54 ac lot $529/sqft · at area comps Est $777k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch located in the desirable Crystal Pine Estates in the heart of Aquebogue. This home offers a spacious and inviting layout featuring hardwood floors, central air conditioning, central vacuum and a full basement providing endless possibilities for additional living space, storage, or recreation. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car garage is a mechanic's dream with engine hoist, heat, air conditioning, and more! Generously sized property perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Ideally situated just moments from everything the North Fork has to offer—renowned wineries, top-rated restaurants, farm stands, beaches, and more—this home combines comfort, location, and lifestyle. A perfect opportunity to enjoy easy one-level living in a sought-after neighborhood!

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $759k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18k ($212k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $759k).
• Recommended offer: $736k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $76k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $213k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$130k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($736k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $736,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.96%
• DSCR: 5.45
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $777,454
• List price: $759,000
• Delta: -2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Church Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+0%)	11mo	$625,000	$434	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $1,541,296
• Equity at exit: $683,767

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.19×
• Total profit: $3,653,019
• Equity at exit: $1,474,570

Cash invested: $212,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,980
• Tax from tax record: −$911 /mo · $10,926/yr
• Insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $17,703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,591

Max offer price $759,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18,133	-5% $17,918	+0% $17,703	+5% $17,488	+10% $17,273
Rent	-10% $15,412	-5% $16,557	+0% $17,703	+5% $18,848	+10% $19,994
Rate	-1.0pp $18,085	-0.5pp $17,896	base $17,703	+0.5pp $17,506	+1.0pp $17,306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $189,750
• Closing costs: $22,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	44d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $759,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $759,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $759,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $759,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $759,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $759,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $759,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $759,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $759,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $759,000 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch located in the desirable Crystal Pine Estates in the heart of Aquebogue. This home offers a spacious and inviting layout featuring hardwood floors, central air conditioning, central vacuum and a full basement providing endless possibilities for additional living space, storage, or recreation. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car garage is a mechanic's dream with engine hoist, heat, air conditioning, and more! Generously sized property perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Ideally situated just moments from everything the North Fork has to offer—renowned wineries, top-rated restaurants, farm stands, beaches, and more—this home combines comfort, location, and lifestyle. A perfect opportunity to enjoy easy one-level living in a sought-after neighborhood!

11. 2026-04-16
    listed $799,000 Active 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch located in the desirable Crystal Pine Estates in the heart of Aquebogue. This home offers a spacious and inviting layout featuring hardwood floors, central air conditioning, central vacuum and a full basement providing endless possibilities for additional living space, storage, or recreation. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car garage is a mechanic's dream with engine hoist, heat, air conditioning, and more! Generously sized property perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Ideally situated just moments from everything the North Fork has to offer—renowned wineries, top-rated restaurants, farm stands, beaches, and more—this home combines comfort, location, and lifestyle. A perfect opportunity to enjoy easy one-level living in a sought-after neighborhood!

12. 2026-04-04
    historical $799,000 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch located in the desirable Crystal Pine Estates in the heart of Aquebogue. This home offers a spacious and inviting layout featuring hardwood floors, central air conditioning, central vacuum and a full basement providing endless possibilities for additional living space, storage, or recreation. Enjoy the convenience of a 2-car garage is a mechanic's dream with engine hoist, heat, air conditioning, and more! Generously sized property perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. Ideally situated just moments from everything the North Fork has to offer—renowned wineries, top-rated restaurants, farm stands, beaches, and more—this home combines comfort, location, and lifestyle. A perfect opportunity to enjoy easy one-level living in a sought-after neighborhood!

13. 2025-10-07
    status Active
14. 2025-06-12
    listed $849,000 Active
15. 2023-05-24
    soldstatus $750,000
16. 2023-02-15
    soldstatus $750,000 Closed
17. 2023-01-20
    status Pending
18. 2023-01-03
    listed $780,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,926 · $911/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,877 · $990/mo
• Expected delta: +$950/yr (+$79/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $348,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,516
• − Property taxes: −$10,926
• − Insurance: −$3,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,840
• − Management: −$27,840
• − Depreciation: −$22,080
• Taxable income: $213,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51,121
• After-tax cash flow: $161,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $759,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Coming Soon $799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Listed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-03 Listed $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,926 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.