40 Lake Rd

Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458

$1,000,000C

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,034 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax + insurance: −$1,737
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,268
• Net cashflow: $1,553/mo
• Annual: $18,631/yr
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $280,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $1.00M).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#278 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northern Highlands Regional High School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #43 of 472 in NJ (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,488 units permitted in Bergen County in 2024 (1,610 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bergen County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $782k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.