40 Lake Rd · Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458

$1,000,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1988

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

big and luxurious

Key facts

• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $1.00M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#278 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northern Highlands Regional High School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #43 of 472 in NJ (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,488 units permitted in Bergen County in 2024 (1,610 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bergen County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $782k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,000,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-62,951
• Equity at exit: $149,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $73,351
• Equity at exit: $86,462

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07458

• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax from tax record: −$1,320 /mo · $15,843/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,268
• Net cashflow: $1,553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,837

Max offer price $1,000,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Carlough Rd Upper Saddle River, NJ	4.0	3.0	3519	$8,650	$2.46	1d	1	1.02mi
88 Lake St Upper Saddle River, NJ	4.0	2.5	2944	$20,000	$6.79	2d	1	1.27mi
1015 Chestnut Ridge Rd Spring Valley, NY	5.0	3.0	3056	$4,000	$1.31	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $1,000,000 Active
2. 2004-09-07
   soldstatus $782,000
3. 1987-08-05
   soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,843 · $1,320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,372 · $1,698/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,528/yr (+$377/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,016
• − Property taxes: −$15,843
• − Insurance: −$5,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,370
• − Management: −$10,370
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable income: $2,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$704
• After-tax cash flow: $17,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern Highlands Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3411730
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $134,329
• Composite: 58.7/100
• National rank: #979
• State rank: #43 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Upper Saddle River

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #8279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Saddle River, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 11,712

Population outlook (Bergen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,021,896 people
• By 2030: 1,063,119 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 1,146,566 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 1,229,132 · +20.3%
• By 2075: 1,429,694 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,547,614 · +51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Chinese 4% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bergen

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 47.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: 3.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.4 2020: D+16.4 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.50%
• Current HPI: 227.3381
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $1,000,000 FSBO.com
• 2004-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $782,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,843 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.