281 Northwinds Blvd Unit B3

Carrollton, GA 30117

$189,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-886/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#113 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton City (town): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #44 of 174 in GA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carrollton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #327 of 1,228 statewide, top 27%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL); Carrollton Upper Elementary School (math 46% / reading 43%, grade D, #109 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 1,189 students, 57% FRL); Carrollton High School (math 36% / reading 24%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,757 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $189k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.