281 Northwinds Blvd Unit B3 · Carrollton, GA 30117

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Townhouse · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 5,227 sqft lot $160/sqft · 6% below area Est $200k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The seller is willing to pay up to $4,000 towards a buyers closing cost! This is a one level floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This is an end unit of a triplex building located on a dead end street. This property is located on the north side of Carrollton City Limits near Carroll EMC and provides a very private and in an area that does not have heavy traffic. The property has been maintained very well and is move in ready. New roof with a transferable warranty installed summer of 2025. Three bedrooms and two bath with a open kitchen/dining area open to the living room. The property is total electric, city water/sewer in the City of Carrollton. The unit does have a covered rear porch and a small side yard with excellent privacy.

Key facts

• Dead end street
• End unit of triplex
• One level floor plan

Tags

• ONE LEVEL FLOOR PLAN
• END UNIT OF TRIPLEX
• DEAD END STREET
• PRIVATE AREA
• MOVE IN READY
• NEW ROOF WITH WARRANTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#113 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Carrollton City (town): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #44 of 174 in GA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carrollton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #327 of 1,228 statewide, top 27%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL); Carrollton Upper Elementary School (math 46% / reading 43%, grade D, #109 of 470 statewide, top 24%, 1,189 students, 57% FRL); Carrollton High School (math 36% / reading 24%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,757 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 876 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $189k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,990 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,088
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -5.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
281 Northwinds Blvd Unit D2	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+4%)	23mo	$209,900	$171	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,758
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-38,947
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30117

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $178,319

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-9	+0% $-74	+5% $-139	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-135	+0% $-74	+5% $-12	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-26	base $-74	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Danny Dr Carrollton, GA	2.0	1.5	1065	$1,380	$1.30	0d	5	0.74mi
215 Pennsylvania Ave Carrollton, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	4d	1	1.24mi
802 N Park St Unit A Carrollton, GA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	26d	1	1.27mi
805B Stewart St Carrollton, GA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	3d	1	1.31mi
108 Chalfont Cir Carrollton, GA	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,750	$1.66	45d	1	1.38mi
902 Rome St Unit A Carrollton, GA	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,400	$1.10	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $189,000 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    The seller will provide up to $4,000 in Closing Cost towards a buyers loan. This home is a one level floor plan with no steps. 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths with a nice kitchen with lots of cabinets and counter space. The kitchen, dining area and living room are open for a large space. This unit is the end unit of a triplex building located a short distance from the River Bridge Shopping Center. This property is located on the north side of Carrollton City Limits near Carroll EMC and provides a very private location. The property has been maintained very well and is move in ready. New roof with a transferable warranty installed summer of 2025. The property is total electric, city water/sewer in the City of Carrollton. The unit does have a covered rear porch and a small side yard with excellent privacy.

17. 2026-05-15
    price $189,000 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    The seller will provide up to $4,000 in Closing Cost towards a buyers loan. This home is a one level floor plan with no steps. 3 bedrooms & 2 full baths with a nice kitchen with lots of cabinets and counter space. The kitchen, dining area and living room are open for a large space. This unit is the end unit of a triplex building located a short distance from the River Bridge Shopping Center. This property is located on the north side of Carrollton City Limits near Carroll EMC and provides a very private location. The property has been maintained very well and is move in ready. New roof with a transferable warranty installed summer of 2025. The property is total electric, city water/sewer in the City of Carrollton. The unit does have a covered rear porch and a small side yard with excellent privacy.

18. 2026-04-15
    listed $199,000 New 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    The seller is willing to pay up to $4,000 towards a buyers closing cost! This is a one level floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This is an end unit of a triplex building located on a dead end street. This property is located on the north side of Carrollton City Limits near Carroll EMC and provides a very private and in an area that does not have heavy traffic. The property has been maintained very well and is move in ready. New roof with a transferable warranty installed summer of 2025. Three bedrooms and two bath with a open kitchen/dining area open to the living room. The property is total electric, city water/sewer in the City of Carrollton. The unit does have a covered rear porch and a small side yard with excellent privacy.

19. 2026-04-15
    listed $199,000 Active 749-char remark

    Show marketing remark (749 chars)

    The seller is willing to pay up to $4,000 towards a buyers closing cost! This is a one level floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. This is an end unit of a triplex building located on a dead end street. This property is located on the north side of Carrollton City Limits near Carroll EMC and provides a very private and in an area that does not have heavy traffic. The property has been maintained very well and is move in ready. New roof with a transferable warranty installed summer of 2025. Three bedrooms and two bath with a open kitchen/dining area open to the living room. The property is total electric, city water/sewer in the City of Carrollton. The unit does have a covered rear porch and a small side yard with excellent privacy.

20. 2026-03-31
    historical
21. 2026-03-20
    price $199,000
22. 2026-02-02
    price $205,000
23. 2026-01-29
    price $209,000
24. 2026-01-13
    price $214,900
25. 2025-12-12
    price $219,000
26. 2025-09-02
    listed $224,000 New
27. 2014-08-26
    price $53,500
28. 2014-08-11
    historical
29. 2014-08-07
    soldstatus $53,500 Sold
30. 2014-08-04
    status Under Contract
31. 2014-08-04
    price $69,900
32. 2014-05-05
    listed $69,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$994
• After-tax cash flow: $108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrollton City
• NCES district ID: 1300870
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 34.73/100
• National rank: #5133
• State rank: #44 of 174 in GA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #8542

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollton, GA
• County: Carroll County · 124,888 people
• City population: 61,993
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 39,804
• Household income: $61,842
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,370 people
• By 2030: 127,186 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 133,534 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 137,612 · +11.5%
• By 2075: 142,892 · +15.8%
• By 2100: 136,294 · +10.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.1% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.30%
• Current HPI: 331.823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+170.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $205,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $214,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $219,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $224,000 GAMLS
• 2014-08-26 Price Changed $53,500 GAMLS
• 2014-08-11 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-08-07 Sold (MLS) $53,500 GAMLS
• 2014-08-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-08-04 Price Changed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2014-05-05 Listed $69,900 GAMLS