152 Shady Ln #152

Memphis, FL 34221

$154,500D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$212
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $941/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $43,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($941/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palm View K-8 School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 653 students, 77% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1708 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint touch-ups — Paint appears fresh but may need touch-ups.
• Minor: Window blinds — Blinds may need cleaning or replacement if worn out.