152 Shady Ln #152 · Memphis, FL 34221

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition $212/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of Florida paradise! This beautifully maintained lake view 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom furnished mobile home in the desirable Leisure Lake Co-Op community offers convenience, and easy coastal living. With approximately 1,150 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home is perfect as a full-time residence or seasonal retreat. Step inside to find a bright and inviting interior, complete with comfortable furnishings and an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living and dining areas. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining a breeze. The primary bedroom features generous closet space and a pri

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Clubhouse
• Extra storage

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• COVERED PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE
• CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Buyer approval required for community
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees listed as $2,544; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $212); Association approval required; HOA covers pool, maintenance of grounds, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated entry, pool, tennis courts, golf cart friendly, and deed-restricted community; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Off-street parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Rain gutters; Paved lot; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $155,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.4% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palm View K-8 School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 653 students, 77% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.47%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,328
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Shady Ln #40	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+1%)	1mo	$195,000	$168	85
317 Peace Mnr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,128 (-2%)	8mo	$125,000	$111	84
165 Lakeview Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,242 (+8%)	3mo	$193,500	$156	78
464 Kaiser Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,072 (-7%)	8mo	$85,000	$79	71
78 Leisure Way	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,012 (-12%)	6mo	$60,000	$59	60
312 Peace Mnr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+15%)	13mo	$115,000	$87	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-484
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,827
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $541	+0% $487	+5% $434	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $310	-5% $399	+0% $487	+5% $576	+10% $664
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $527	base $487	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	25d	1	0.06mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	25d	1	0.64mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$3,695	$2.95	25d	1	0.74mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	25d	1	0.75mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	25d	1	0.77mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	25d	1	0.79mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	25d	1	0.79mi
1514 Fairway Oaks Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,540	$1.05	12d	1	0.89mi
2602 Edgewater Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$4,000	$3.19	25d	1	0.98mi
2615 9th Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,200	$1.61	25d	1	1.00mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	12d	1	1.01mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL	1.0	2.0	1106	$3,200	$2.89	25d	1	1.02mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #102 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,200	$1.75	17d	1	1.02mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #201 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,200	$1.48	4d	1	1.02mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #401 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$3,495	$2.59	25d	1	1.04mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #802 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,395	$2.09	25d	1	1.04mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	25d	1	1.08mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	1.10mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	25d	1	1.14mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	25d	1	1.16mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	1.18mi
2211 11th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,195	$1.71	17d	1	1.20mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	3d	1	1.20mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	3d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $212 · $2,544/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 43% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$901
• After-tax cash flow: $4,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Leisure Lake Co-Op offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some interior cleaning to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint touch-ups — Paint appears fresh but may need touch-ups.
• Minor Window blinds — Blinds may need cleaning or replacement if worn out.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Window blinds cleaning — Clean blinds improve natural light and reduce dust accumulation.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior enhances the home's appeal and can attract more potential buyers/renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint touch-ups · Paint appears fresh but may need touch-ups.	Minor	$500–3,000
Window blinds · Blinds may need cleaning or replacement if worn out.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Window blinds cleaning — Clean blinds improve natural light and reduce dust accumulation. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior enhances the home's appeal and can attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid