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152 Shady Ln #152 🏢 Co-op
D+ Composite 48.19
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +15.9/30.0
  • ARV discount +10.7/15.0
  • 1% rule +6.1/10.0
  • DSCR +4.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Schools +3.6/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.8/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -4.2

$155,000

152 Shady Ln #152 · Memphis, FL 34221
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured · 152 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 1994 Good condition $212/mo HOA

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to your slice of Florida paradise! This beautifully maintained lake view 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom furnished mobile home in the desirable Leisure Lake Co-Op community offers convenience, and easy coastal living. With approximately 1,150 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home is perfect as a full-time residence or seasonal retreat. Step inside to find a bright and inviting interior, complete with comfortable furnishings and an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living and dining areas. The spacious kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, making meal prep and entertaining a breeze.

Key facts

  • Covered parking
  • Clubhouse
  • Extra storage

Tags

FLORIDA ROOMIN-UNIT LAUNDRYCOVERED PARKINGEXTRA STORAGECLUBHOUSEHEATED POOL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $155,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($888/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
  • Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Palm View K-8 School (math 39% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 653 students, 77% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 99d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.11%
Cap rate
6.87%
Cash-on-cash
2.05%
DSCR
1.09
GRM
7.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$166,837
List price
$155,000
Delta
-7.09%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
10 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
40 Shady Ln #40 0.26mi 2/2.0 1,164 (+1%) 4mo $195,000 $168 82
317 Peace Mnr 0.13mi 2/2.0 1,128 (-2%) 11mo $125,000 $111 82
132 Lakeview Dr #132 0.09mi 2/2.0 1,056 (-8%) 0mo $115,000 $109 82
165 Lakeview Dr 0.13mi 2/2.0 1,242 (+8%) 6mo $193,500 $156 75
464 Kaiser Dr 0.23mi 2/2.0 1,072 (-7%) 11mo $85,000 $79 69
78 Leisure Way 0.23mi 2/1.0 1,012 (-12%) 9mo $60,000 $59 57
312 Peace Mnr 0.11mi 2/2.0 1,320 (+15%) 16mo $115,000 $87 57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-17.0%
Equity multiple
0.42×
Total profit
$-25,284
Equity at exit
$23,111
10-year hold
IRR
-17.4%
Equity multiple
0.20×
Total profit
$-34,773
Equity at exit
$13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
5 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply
7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$135,000 ($115/sqft)
Median days on market
195 d
This list price
60% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+26.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

Rents YoY
-3.0%
Active inventory
1580
Price-to-rent
7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,718 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$813
Tax est. 1.5%
$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
Insurance
$65
HOA
$212
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$361
Net cashflow
$74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624
Max offer price $155,000
Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $181 -5% $128 +0% $74 +5% $20 +10% $-33
Rent -10% $-62 -5% $6 +0% $74 +5% $142 +10% $210
Rate -1.0pp $152 -0.5pp $113 base $74 +0.5pp $34 +1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$38,750
Closing costs
$4,650
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 32 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1414 $2,185 $1.55 119d 1 0.06mi
412 28th St W #0 Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1357 $2,395 $1.76 9d 1 0.24mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 980 $1,800 $1.84 88d 1 0.64mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1253 $3,695 $2.95 119d 1 0.74mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.0 962 $1,895 $1.97 119d 1 0.75mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,895 $1.69 2d 1 0.79mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,795 $1.60 9d 1 0.79mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1120 $1,795 $1.60 119d 1 0.79mi
3919 3rd Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,950 $1.95 88d 1 0.85mi
1702 Fairway Trce #1702 Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1487 $2,295 $1.54 9d 1 0.85mi
1514 Fairway Oaks Dr Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1461 $1,800 $1.23 71d 1 0.89mi
2602 Edgewater Ct Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1253 $4,000 $3.19 119d 1 0.98mi
2615 9th Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1369 $2,200 $1.61 119d 1 1.00mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1060 $1,800 $1.70 106d 1 1.01mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #102 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1256 $2,400 $1.91 9d 1 1.02mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL 1.0 2.0 1106 $3,200 $2.89 119d 1 1.02mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #201 Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1486 $2,200 $1.48 98d 1 1.02mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #401 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1349 $3,495 $2.59 119d 1 1.04mi
2625 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #802 Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1148 $3,695 $3.22 9d 1 1.04mi
4620 3rd Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.5 938 $2,300 $2.45 63d 1 1.08mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL 2.0–3.0 1.0 800 $1,495 $1.87 119d 1 1.08mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 1000 $1,800 $1.80 119d 1 1.10mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 900 $2,100 $2.33 119d 1 1.14mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1460 $2,000 $1.37 119d 1 1.16mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,550 $1.55 88d 1 1.18mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,550 $1.55 98d 1 1.18mi
2211 11th Ave E Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1285 $2,195 $1.71 111d 1 1.20mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL 3.0 1.0 1072 $1,800 $1.68 97d 1 1.20mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $1,340 $1.58 97d 1 1.32mi
522 10th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 850 $1,299 $1.53 9d 1 1.35mi
522 10th St W Palmetto, FL 2.0 1.0 895 $1,299 $1.45 5d 1 1.35mi
2314 15th Ave E Palmetto, FL 3.0 2.0 1320 $2,600 $1.97 6d 1 1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
FurnishedBuyer approval required for community
Financial info
Total annual HOA fees listed as $2,544Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Has HOA (monthly fee $212)Association approval requiredHOA covers pool, maintenance of grounds, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and waterCommunity amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated entry, pool, tennis courts, golf cart friendly, and deed-restricted communitySenior communityPets not allowed

Exterior

Parking
Covered parkingDrivewayOff-street parking1-car carport
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connectedCable connected
Home design
Manufactured double-wide homeSingle-storySouth-facing
Construction
Vinyl sidingShingle roofCrawlspace foundationBuilt as a double wide manufactured home
Exterior features
Screened patio/porchRain guttersPaved lotAsphalt road

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherRangeRange hoodMicrowave
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Heat pumpCentral airHumidity control
Interior features
Ceiling fansLiving room/dining room comboThermostatWindow treatments
Laundry & utility
WasherDryerLaundry closet

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 152 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $155,000 Active 145 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 144 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $155,000 Active 143 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $155,000 Active 142 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $155,000 Active 141 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $155,000 Active 140 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $155,000 Active 139 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 133 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 132 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 131 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 127 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $155,000 Active 126 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 125 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $155,000 Active 122 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $155,000 Active 120 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $155,000 Active 119 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $155,000 Active 118 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $155,000 Active 117 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $155,000 Active 116 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 115 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $155,000 Active 114 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 113 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $155,000 Active 112 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $155,000 Active 110 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $155,000 Active 109 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $155,000 Active 108 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $155,000 Active 107 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 106 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 105 DOM
  41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 104 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 103 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 102 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 101 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 100 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 97 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 95 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 90 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $155,000 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$20,615
− Mortgage interest
−$8,682
− Property taxes
−$2,325
− Insurance
−$775
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,649
− Management
−$1,649
− HOA
−$2,544
− Depreciation
−$4,509
Taxable loss
−$1,519
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$365
After-tax cash flow
$1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,750–$17,250 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in Leisure Lake Co-Op offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some interior cleaning to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

  • Minor Paint touch-ups — Paint appears fresh but may need touch-ups.
  • Minor Window blinds — Blinds may need cleaning or replacement if worn out.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Window blinds cleaning — Clean blinds improve natural light and reduce dust accumulation.
  • Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value.
  • Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior enhances the home's appeal and can attract more potential buyers/renters.
  • Both HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Palmetto Elementary School F FL #1,345/2,144 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

Score
63/100
State rank
#745
US rank
#16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Memphis, FL
County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
33,296
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
56,208
Household income
$77,712
Rent vs Own
17.1% rent · 82.9% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity
White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
Languages at home
81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…