651 N Thompson Ave

Ajo, AZ 85321

$185,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $939/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, employment D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ajo Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 268 students, 75% FRL); Ajo High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #298 of 381 statewide, top 90%, 135 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 25% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ajo Unified District (4409) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $185k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.