651 N Thompson Ave · Ajo, AZ 85321

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1979 8,969 sqft lot Est $158k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Professionally remodeled and ready for occupancy, This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,328 sq. ft. of comfortable living space with a stucco exterior, new roof, laminate flooring, updated bathrooms, and vinyl windows throughout. The spacious living area flows into an open kitchen featuring a gas range, built-in microwave, and refrigerator. The primary suite boasts a custom tiled walk-in shower with designer accents. Washer and dryer convey. Outside, enjoy RV gate access, additional parking, a large backyard with mountain views, and a quiet street location. Situated in historic Ajo, known for its charming town plaza, desert beauty, and easy access to the beaches and fishing destinations of P

Key facts

• 8,969 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and block exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation (construction type indicated)
• Exterior features: Stucco and block construction; Block and chain-link fencing; Composition roof; Desert front yard with gravel/stone front and back; County-maintained road; Asphalt road surface; Views of city, desert, and mountains

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames
• Laundry & utility: Has heating and cooling systems

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, employment D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ajo Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 268 students, 75% FRL); Ajo High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #298 of 381 statewide, top 90%, 135 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 25% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ajo Unified District (4409) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $185k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,462 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 N Thompson Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+3%)	1mo	$157,000	$115	91
600 N Thompson Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	12mo	$153,000	$109	77
800 N Lyons Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+0%)	18mo	$145,000	$109	76
901 N Sartillion Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-10%)	7mo	$147,000	$124	64
520 W Rocalla Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-8%)	8mo	$145,000	$119	55
920 N Thompson Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (-14%)	11mo	$60,000	$53	54
361 W Placer St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-8%)	5mo	$147,000	$121	51
230 W 1st Ave	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (+5%)	3mo	$215,000	$154	51
500 W Rocalla Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-6%)	12mo	$154,900	$124	50
410 W 7th St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-0%)	21mo	$145,000	$110	48
33 N Rosedale Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	15mo	$175,000	$146	43
321 W 3rd Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+7%)	13mo	$140,000	$98	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,075
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,746
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85321

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $758/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,406

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $131	+0% $78	+5% $26	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-41	-5% $19	+0% $78	+5% $138	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $125	base $78	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 61.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$758
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$543
• After-tax cash flow: $1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ajo Unified District (4409)
• NCES district ID: 0400520
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,237
• Composite: 23.59/100
• National rank: #13264
• State rank: #343 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ajo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ajo, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,313

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.38%
• Current HPI: 173.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+293.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 1996-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,835 Public Records
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,835 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $758 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.