4203 Arcturus Ln

Mobile, AL 36693

$185,195C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,549 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,652/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$971
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $197/mo
• Annual: $2,360/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $51,855

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (10.8% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $165k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kate Shepard Elementary School (math 16% / reading 48%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 74% FRL); Burns Middle School (math 4% / reading 30%, grade F, #201 of 257 statewide, top 79%, 710 students, 67% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 144 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.