1423 Rolling Hills Dr

Graham, TX 76450

$141,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$742
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-155/mo
• Annual: $-1,858/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $39,620

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (10.3% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $978 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Graham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #252 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.