1423 Rolling Hills Dr · Graham, TX 76450

$141,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1957 8,712 sqft lot $115/sqft · 18% below area Est $173k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and quiet living at 1423 Rolling Hills Drive. This charming home offers a bright layout with warm natural light throughout. The spacious living area flows easily into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating an inviting setting for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Outside, the large yard provides room to relax, garden, or play—perfect for peaceful evenings or weekend gatherings. Located in a desirable neighborhood near local conveniences, this property blends comfort, simplicity, and a welcoming sense of home.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Graham ISD (town): math 50% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #252 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $978 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,145 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.69%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,720
• List price: $141,500
• Delta: -18.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 Texas St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,252 (+2%)	2mo	$129,500	$103	72
1409 Rolling Hills Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (+3%)	22mo	$212,500	$167	67
1424 Scenic Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+11%)	4mo	$249,000	$182	64
1352 Hillcrest Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+1%)	7mo	$160,000	$128	56
1306 Fairway Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+11%)	10mo	$255,000	$186	37
723 Carolina St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (-13%)	8mo	$128,900	$121	36
1305 Blewett St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,048 (-15%)	4mo	$99,000	$94	35
1328 Johnnie Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+11%)	15mo	$64,900	$47	31
1019 2nd St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,048 (-15%)	21mo	$100,000	$95	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-32,662
• Equity at exit: $21,098

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-40,615
• Equity at exit: $12,234

Cash invested: $39,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76450

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$742
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $114,145

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,375
• Closing costs: $4,245
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,500 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,500 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,500 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,500 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,500 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $141,500 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,500 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $141,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $141,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $141,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $141,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,500 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $157,500 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Discover comfort and quiet living at 1423 Rolling Hills Drive. This charming home offers a bright layout with warm natural light throughout. The spacious living area flows easily into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating an inviting setting for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Outside, the large yard provides room to relax, garden, or play—perfect for peaceful evenings or weekend gatherings. Located in a desirable neighborhood near local conveniences, this property blends comfort, simplicity, and a welcoming sense of home.

16. 2026-04-01
    listed $175,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Discover comfort and quiet living at 1423 Rolling Hills Drive. This charming home offers a bright layout with warm natural light throughout. The spacious living area flows easily into the kitchen and dining spaces, creating an inviting setting for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Outside, the large yard provides room to relax, garden, or play—perfect for peaceful evenings or weekend gatherings. Located in a desirable neighborhood near local conveniences, this property blends comfort, simplicity, and a welcoming sense of home.

17. 2026-01-19
    price $165,000
18. 2025-12-31
    price $175,000
19. 2025-12-16
    price $185,000
20. 2025-12-06
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus
23. 2022-08-28
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-09
    historical Active Option Contract
25. 2022-07-27
    price $219,500
26. 2022-06-22
    listed $224,500 Active
27. 2021-09-22
    soldstatus
28. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus
29. 2021-05-27
    listed $134,900 Active
30. 2016-08-22
    soldstatus
31. 1996-06-01
    soldstatus
32. 1987-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,275 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,275 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,926
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$708
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$4,116
• Taxable loss: −$4,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graham ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821360
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,314
• Composite: 39.16/100
• National rank: #4030
• State rank: #252 of 826 in TX

Livability — Graham

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #5580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,890

Population outlook (Young County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,860 people
• By 2030: 17,620 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,054 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 16,551 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 15,667 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 14,066 · -21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Young

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -63.5pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.6 2012: R+71.5 2008: R+63.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.82%
• Current HPI: 198.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $157,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-08-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-08-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-07-27 Price Changed $219,500 NTREIS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $224,500 NTREIS
• 2021-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-27 Listed $134,900 NTREIS
• 2016-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,275 · +22.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.