285 Sheep Pasture Rd

East Setauket, NY 11733

$650,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,116/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $575k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $531k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Minnesauke Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 642 students, 12% FRL); Paul J Gelinas Junior High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #13 of 729 statewide, top 2%, 647 students, 9% FRL); Ward Melville Senior High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 1,507 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in East Setauket — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($173k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.