621 Bernard Dr

Belleville, IL 62223

$115,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-125/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (4.8% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ellis Elem School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #517 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 358 students, 0% FRL); Harmony Intermediate Center (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #517 of 665 statewide, top 79%, 227 students, 0% FRL); Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $115k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.