621 Bernard Dr · Belleville, IL 62223

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1957 0.43 ac lot Est $134k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers a cozy and functional layout perfect for comfortable living. The property features a spacious living area that seamlessly flows into a well-sized kitchen with ample counterspace. The two bedrooms provide ample space and natural light, while the bathroom is conveniently located nearby. Outside, you'll find a large backyard with an upper area. The front yard greets you with a front deck (8 x 15). You also have a walk-through Sun room and other room which provides great space. In the garage, you have a back door which also leads to the backyard. The property is ideally located in a quiet neighborhood, providing a peaceful retreat while still bei

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: No second mortgage recorded

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2-car) approximately 23 x 23
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (220 volts, Ameren); Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; A few trees; Gentle sloping lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (10 x 11.5)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; Additional bathroom spaces on the main level (rooms measuring 10 x 11.6 and 8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room (15.9 x 11.5); Additional main-level rooms measuring 11 x 11.6, 10 x 17, and 10 x 15; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (10 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $115k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Richard Pl	0.32mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$150	60
512 Pembroke Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,069 (+9%)	10mo	$160,000	$150	58
638 Monica Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	958 (-3%)	13mo	$111,900	$117	56
120 Edgewood Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	888 (-10%)	10mo	$89,000	$100	54
29 Villa Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	18mo	$149,000	$133	53
500 Fern Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-1%)	21mo	$154,900	$159	52
21 Richard Pl	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+12%)	4mo	$150,000	$136	51
631 Monica	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,057 (+7%)	7mo	$145,999	$138	49
109 Bethesda Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	840 (-15%)	8mo	$55,000	$65	48
600 Fern Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (-8%)	18mo	$116,500	$129	48
8317 Old Saint Louis Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,060 (+8%)	12mo	$180,000	$170	42
1317 Eiler Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,088 (+11%)	22mo	$129,900	$119	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $58,113
• Equity at exit: $99,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $170,845
• Equity at exit: $210,135

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62223

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,692/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $113,157

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $22	+0% $-10	+5% $-43	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-54	+0% $-10	+5% $33	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $19	base $-10	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $125,000
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $138,500 Active
16. 2026-04-16
    historical $138,500
17. 1996-11-07
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,692 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,692 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,692
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$484
• After-tax cash flow: $359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 16,269
• Household income: $73,700
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 259.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+363.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $138,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $138,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,692 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.