1450 & 1452 Sandy Cir

Prices Fork, VA 24060

$389,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,198 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Pending · 336 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $485/mo
• Annual: $5,825/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in VA, #1,003 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F.
• Montgomery County Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #47 of 131 in VA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 323 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Prices Fork — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,629/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 3694% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.