617 Wisconsin St

Belen, NM 87002

$189,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,610/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-790/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-790/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?