617 Wisconsin St · Belen, NM 87002

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Other · 94 Days on market

Built 1988 0.29 ac lot $118/sqft · 24% below area Est $247k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter home that needs a little love and you to make it home. Located in beautiful and quiet Belen, this property offers backyard access, a chicken coop, a shed and plenty of space for toys of all sorts on . 29 acre. The home features an open floor plan and a split primary bedroom with a large bathroom retreat. Enjoy easy access to the freeway and the Rail Runner.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1988
• Listed 94 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-790/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Belen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#72 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Belen Consolidated Schools (other): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #50 of 95 in NM (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,026 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.35%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,400
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -23.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,776
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,504
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87002

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,714/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $177,368

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Laura Ct Belen, NM	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,600	$1.51	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    status Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter home that needs a little love and you to make it home. Located in beautiful and quiet Belen, this property offers backyard access, a chicken coop, a shed and plenty of space for toys of all sorts on . 29 acre. The home features an open floor plan and a split primary bedroom with a large bathroom retreat. Enjoy easy access to the freeway and the Rail Runner.

15. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter home that needs a little love and you to make it home. Located in beautiful and quiet Belen, this property offers backyard access, a chicken coop, a shed and plenty of space for toys of all sorts on . 29 acre. The home features an open floor plan and a split primary bedroom with a large bathroom retreat. Enjoy easy access to the freeway and the Rail Runner.

16. 2026-03-30
    price $199,000 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter home that needs a little love and you to make it home. Located in beautiful and quiet Belen, this property offers backyard access, a chicken coop, a shed and plenty of space for toys of all sorts on . 29 acre. The home features an open floor plan and a split primary bedroom with a large bathroom retreat. Enjoy easy access to the freeway and the Rail Runner.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $210,500 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Check out this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom starter home that needs a little love and you to make it home. Located in beautiful and quiet Belen, this property offers backyard access, a chicken coop, a shed and plenty of space for toys of all sorts on . 29 acre. The home features an open floor plan and a split primary bedroom with a large bathroom retreat. Enjoy easy access to the freeway and the Rail Runner.

18. 2023-12-28
    soldstatus
19. 2023-09-20
    status Pending
20. 2023-08-31
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2022-07-14
    price $165,000
22. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus
23. 2020-02-28
    historical
24. 2020-01-16
    status Pending
25. 2019-12-06
    status Active
26. 2019-11-11
    status Pending
27. 2019-11-02
    price $95,000
28. 2019-10-25
    status Active
29. 2019-10-07
    status Pending
30. 2019-09-30
    price $100,000
31. 2019-09-13
    price $105,000
32. 2019-08-27
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,714 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,714 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,714
• − Insurance: −$2,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$4,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$964
• After-tax cash flow: $174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belen Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500180
• Math proficiency: 19% —
• Reading proficiency: 28% —
• Median HH income: $38,445
• Composite: 22.79/100
• National rank: #13408
• State rank: #50 of 95 in NM

Livability — Belen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #14908

Category grades

Amenities C Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belen, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 21,265
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 21,265
• Household income: $51,961
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 31% Two or more races 28% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.62%
• Current HPI: 219.5581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $199,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $210,500 Southwest MLS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-09-20 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2023-08-31 Listed $175,000 Southwest MLS
• 2022-07-14 Price Changed $165,000 Southwest MLS
• 2020-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-28 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2020-01-16 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2019-12-06 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2019-11-11 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2019-11-02 Price Changed $95,000 Southwest MLS
• 2019-10-25 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2019-10-07 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2019-09-30 Price Changed $100,000 Southwest MLS
• 2019-09-13 Price Changed $105,000 Southwest MLS
• 2019-08-27 Listed $110,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,714 · +25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.