949 Dillon Dr

Silsbee, TX 77656

$72,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,719 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,536/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $710/mo
• Annual: $8,519/yr
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.74%
• DSCR: 2.86
• 1% rule: 2.11%
• Cash to close: $20,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#263 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Silsbee ISD (town): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edwards-Johnson Memorial Middle (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 633 students, 65% FRL); Silsbee H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 814 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 5.4% in Silsbee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.