949 Dillon Dr · Silsbee, TX 77656

$72,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1985 0.37 ac lot $27/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a large 0.37-acre lot in Silsbee! Featuring a generous living area, plenty of yard space, and a versatile garage apartment/extra storage building. Ideal for families, hobbyists, or anyone wanting room to spread out. Located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to downtown Silsbee and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity for comfort and space in one of Silsbee’s desirable areas!

Key facts

• Garage apartment
• Large lot
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• GARAGE APARTMENT
• EXTRA STORAGE BUILDING
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 5.4% in Silsbee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#263 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Silsbee ISD (town): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edwards-Johnson Memorial Middle (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 633 students, 65% FRL); Silsbee H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 814 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,526 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.74%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,370
• List price: $72,900
• Delta: -72.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $33,425
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $87,422
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77656

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $638

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $760	-5% $735	+0% $710	+5% $685	+10% $660
Rent	-10% $589	-5% $649	+0% $710	+5% $771	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $747	-0.5pp $728	base $710	+0.5pp $691	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a large 0.37-acre lot in Silsbee! Featuring a generous living area, plenty of yard space, and a versatile garage apartment/extra storage building. Ideal for families, hobbyists, or anyone wanting room to spread out. Located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to downtown Silsbee and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity for comfort and space in one of Silsbee’s desirable areas!

2. 2026-04-06
   price $72,900 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a large 0.37-acre lot in Silsbee! Featuring a generous living area, plenty of yard space, and a versatile garage apartment/extra storage building. Ideal for families, hobbyists, or anyone wanting room to spread out. Located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to downtown Silsbee and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity for comfort and space in one of Silsbee’s desirable areas!

3. 2026-03-05
   price $74,900 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a large 0.37-acre lot in Silsbee! Featuring a generous living area, plenty of yard space, and a versatile garage apartment/extra storage building. Ideal for families, hobbyists, or anyone wanting room to spread out. Located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to downtown Silsbee and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity for comfort and space in one of Silsbee’s desirable areas!

4. 2026-02-06
   listed $79,900 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a large 0.37-acre lot in Silsbee! Featuring a generous living area, plenty of yard space, and a versatile garage apartment/extra storage building. Ideal for families, hobbyists, or anyone wanting room to spread out. Located in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to downtown Silsbee and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity for comfort and space in one of Silsbee’s desirable areas!

5. 2025-12-11
   soldstatus Closed 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

6. 2025-12-08
   status Pending 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

7. 2025-11-12
   price $99,900 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

8. 2025-10-15
   price $109,900 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

9. 2025-10-08
   price $123,500 128-char remark

   Show marketing remark (128 chars)

   This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

10. 2025-10-02
    status Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

11. 2025-07-23
    status Pending 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

12. 2025-07-01
    listed $130,000 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    This property offers a 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan situate on 0.37 acres of land. Also has a 1-bedroom 1-bath garage apartment.

13. 2020-07-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $7,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,878
• After-tax cash flow: $6,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Silsbee ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,907
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7292
• State rank: #614 of 826 in TX

Livability — Silsbee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #6215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silsbee, TX
• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 17,525
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,525
• Household income: $62,303
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 306.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.73%
• Current HPI: 141.1371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $72,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2025-12-08 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $99,900 BBOR
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $109,900 BBOR
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $123,500 BBOR
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — BBOR
• 2025-07-23 Pending — BBOR
• 2025-07-01 Listed $130,000 BBOR
• 2020-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,940 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.