301 County Road 5716

Natalia, TX 78059

$155,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,085/yr
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#821 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Natalia ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #735 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Natalia El (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 323 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.1% in Natalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.