220 N Commerce St

Burleson, TX 76028

$127,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $265/mo
• Annual: $3,175/yr
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Academy At Nola Dunn (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 675 students, 17% FRL); Nick Kerr Middle (math 40% / reading 44%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,248 students, 43% FRL); Burleson Centennial H S (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,104 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.