263 Riley Rd

Vails Gate, NY 12553

$519,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 1998 · MultiFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax + insurance: −$1,122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,746/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $145,572

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $520k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-73/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $494k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $469k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $469k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Vails Gate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,687/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 960% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.