263 Riley Rd · Vails Gate, NY 12553

$519,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1998 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Improved Price!! Great investment opportunity or live in one unit and rent out the other! Set back off the road on 1.3 private acres, this well-maintained two-family property offers strong income potential with below-market rents and separate utilities for each unit. Ample parking plus additional off-street parking and a large detached finished garage provide excellent flexibility for tenants or owner use. Each spacious unit features its own private entrance, 12-foot ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and approximately 1,216 square feet of living space. Both apartments include a stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, and washer/dryer hookups. The upper unit features a rear entrance, large deck for

Key facts

• Private acres
• Ample parking
• Private entrance

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• AMPLE PARKING
• DETACHED FINISHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• WOODED BACKYARD VIEWS
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for about 10 vehicles; Driveway and off-street parking; Parking lot; One garage space
• Security: Smoke detectors; Other security features
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Central Hudson); Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Duplex; Crawl attic; Not waterfront
• Construction: Block construction; Block or slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Outdoor lighting; Mailbox; Partial wood fencing; Garage(s) structure present

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Accessible approach with ramp; Accessible entrance; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric dryer hookup; In-kitchen laundry location

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-73/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $494k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $469k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $469k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Vails Gate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,687/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 960% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $468,700 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-93,287
• Equity at exit: $77,519

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-92,243
• Equity at exit: $44,951

Cash invested: $145,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax from tax record: −$905 /mo · $10,863/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,871

Max offer price $494,192

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $2	+0% $-146	+5% $-293	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-331	+0% $-146	+5% $40	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $-13	base $-146	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-417

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1.5	$4,688
Total (2 units)			$4,687

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,975
• Closing costs: $15,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $519,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $519,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $519,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $519,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $519,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $519,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $569,900 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $569,900 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $569,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,863 · $905/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,863 · $905/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,122
• − Property taxes: −$10,863
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,500
• − Management: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$15,124
• Taxable loss: −$10,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,511
• After-tax cash flow: $765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Vails Gate

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $569,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,863 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.